Any forecast involving the Big Ten standings, even one published seven months before the season, must start with a single decision: To pick ties or not to pick ties.

Because they are inevitable. Two-team ties, three-team ties, even four-team ties — there is no avoiding them with 18 schools and only nine conference games.

Last season, 13 teams finished tied somewhere in the final standings.

The five that did not tie were on the top tier, where Oregon finished alone in first and Ohio State was by itself in fourth, and on the bottom rung with Northwestern, Maryland and Purdue occupying the final three spots.

The middle was absolute gridlock.

That said, the Hotline does not pick ties. Never has, never will. The forecast below is a straight shot, No. 1 through No. 18 without regret apologies.

Our goal isn’t complete accuracy but a reasonable approximation. If No. 11 Minnesota finishes in a three-way tie for ninth, for example, we’ll count that as a victory.

Here we go …

1. Penn State

The Nittany Lions were slotted third in the Hotline’s ridiculously early Top 25 rankings — two spots behind Ohio State — that were published in the aftermath of the national championship game. Since then, Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Knowles changed his address to Happy Valley, Pa. It’s a big deal. Knowles is one of the best in the business, and his move has altered our outlook for the Big Ten race. Add the return of quarterback Drew Allar, tailbacks Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen and loads of linemen, and Penn State has the ingredients to beat Ohio State (finally) and overtake Oregon.

2. Ohio State

How will the Buckeyes possibly manage to stay afloat in the conference race when all they have is the best offensive player in the country (receiver Jeremiah Smith), the best defensive player in the country (safety Caleb Downs), a five-star quarterback who transferred from Alabama (Julian Sayin) and blue-chip talent on every unit? We suspect they will persevere and maybe, just maybe, get bowl-eligible — even without Knowles running the defense.

3. Oregon

The defending Big Ten champions are on the short list of frontrunners for the 2025 crown, but the path isn’t as wide as it was last season — in part because the Ducks will, for the first time since 2020 (Tyler Shough), lean on an inexperienced quarterback. Granted, Dante Moore is a major talent, but he started only a few games for UCLA in 2023 and played sparingly for the Ducks in 2024. Oregon’s success and Moore’s playmaking responsibility have an inverse relationship: The more the Ducks rely on him, the more perilous the path.

4. Illinois

It’s not entirely accurate to say the Illini could be in 2025 what Indiana was in 2024 because the Hoosiers were completely rebuilding under a new coach. Illinois won 10 games last season and is loaded with stability under Bret Bielema, whose lineup features a veteran quarterback, Luke Altmyer, and returning starters everywhere. But if you’re wondering which of the non-powerhouses could rise up and disrupt the race, the search should start in Champaign.

5. Indiana

Consider us a tad skeptical Indiana can maintain its level of play into the second season of Curt Cignetti’s tenure, for two reasons: Expectations (internal and external) have soared, which typically affects chemistry in an adverse manner; and while the non-conference schedule is beyond laughable, the Hoosiers face a tough Big Ten lineup with Iowa, Oregon and Penn State on the road, plus a visit from Illinois. Also, former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza takes over the offense. He has a higher ceiling than 2024 starter Kurtis Rourke, and a lower floor.

6. Nebraska

Coach Matt Rhule faces a critical third season — his job security will surely come under scrutiny if the Cornhuskers don’t elevate their play. Two key pieces are in place with quarterback Dylan Raiola and offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, who joined the program last season as a consultant and was eventually promoted to playcaller. Holgorsen’s appointment could rival Jim Knowles’ relocation to Penn State as staff moves that materially impact the conference race.

7. Michigan

Who or what convinced first-year coach Sherrone Moore that his 2024 quarterback room was equipped to compete for a Big Ten title, we will never know. In theory, that issue has been solved with the arrival of mega-recruit Bryce Underwood, who’s expected to start immediately. The defense, which must lead the way while Underwood adjusts, got slammed by attrition to the NFL. As a result, Michigan could be fair-to-middlin’ on both sides of the line of scrimmage early in the season, and formidable late.

8. Washington

The Huskies struggled to adjust to the Big Ten, especially the time zones and physicality. (They were hardly alone in that regard: USC and UCLA floundered, as well.) Will Year 2 bring greater success? We think it’s more likely UW improves on its conference record (4-5) than regresses, for three reasons: the emergence of dynamic quarterback Demond Williams III; upgrades (through the transfer portal) on the lines of scrimmage; and second-year coach Jedd Fisch’s culture and schemes taking hold. That said, the Huskies are at least another year from a serious title run.

9. Michigan State

The Hotline has never been afraid to swing and miss, so here goes: If the Spartans don’t take a major leap forward in Jonathan Smith’s second season — they were 3-6 in conference play in 2024 — then his tenure in East Lansing, however long it lasts, won’t result in MSU joining the conference’s top third. Put another way: The longer they are stuck in the muck, the tougher the escape. Could they make the jump next fall? It depends largely, but not entirely, on junior Aidan Chiles morphing into the elite quarterback many believe he can be.

10. Iowa

We have reached the point in the proceedings where it’s difficult to distinguish one team from another: They all lack star power; they all have as many flaws as strengths; and they all stand a few plays away from an upside surprise. That’s certainly true of the Hawkeyes. The defense will be its usual stout self. If quarterback Mark Gronowski, a transfer from FCS powerhouse South Dakota State, rises to the occasion, Iowa could break out of the pack and contend alongside the heavyweights.

11. Minnesota

The Hotline was admittedly surprised when we looked up at the end of the season and saw the Golden Gophers had finished with eight victories. How did that happen? They were 2-3 after a controversial loss at Michigan, then reeled off six wins in their final eight games. The loss of quarterback Max Brosmer hurts, but coach PJ Fleck consistently maximizes his personnel as well as any coach in the conference. Next season should be no different thanks, in part, to a schedule loaded with teams from the former West division.

12. USC

It should be clear from this projection that we are skeptical — deeply skeptical — of USC’s near-term outlook. But instead of listing the reasons for the Hotline’s cynicism, let’s take the opposite view: What evidence is there to suggest Year 4 under Lincoln Riley will be markedly better than the previous two? What are USC’s strengths? We don’t see anything that separates the Trojans from the masses. Sure, they were a few fourth-quarter plays away from winning nine or 10 games last fall. But was that ill fortune or an indication of underlying issues with resilience, toughness and scheme? Until proven otherwise, we tend to believe it was the latter.

13. Wisconsin

The situation in Madison is comparable to what’s unfolding in Lincoln with a third-year coach under pressure to produce the expected results and leaning heavily on a new offensive coordinator to make it happen. Luke Fickell, a mere 12-13 in his two full seasons with the Badgers, hired playcaller Jeff Grimes away from Kansas. Will Grimes mesh with new quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who joins the program after a reasonably successful year at Maryland? There are too many unknowns for us to have a more optimistic outlook.

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14. Rutgers

Another team likely to get lost in the Big Ten’s massive middle, just as it did last year. The Scarlet Knights went bowling and won seven games, but they finished in a three-team tie for ninth place and were never a threat to contend. Greg Schiano has done well in his second stint with the program but will be severely challenged in 2025 unless Rutgers manages to offset the loss of Kyle Monangai, one of the best little-known running backs in the country last season.

15. UCLA

The good and the bad are one and the same with the Bruins. After an awful start caused, in part, by a ridiculous schedule, they rallied in November and finished 5-7. The upturn under rookie coach DeShaun Foster was commendable. But the mere fact that UCLA could take any positives from a five-win season reflects the low expectations rooted in decades of mediocrity. It has been so long since the Bruins were elite — their last conference title was in 1998 — that the standard for judgment has been completely altered. We don’t see anything changing in 2025. Plod along, folks. Plod along.

16. Northwestern

All you need to know about the state-of-play in Evanston is the presumptive starting quarterback, Preston Stone, lost his job at SMU last season but still constitutes a major upgrade for Northwestern. It was that kind of season for the Wildcats, who finished near the bottom of the FBS in most major offensive categories. Third-year coach David Braun needs Stone to elevate the offense, or all the momentum gained from Braun’s brilliant first season (eight wins in 2023) will be lost.

17. Purdue

All the attention was on North Carolina landing Bill Belichick, but Barry Odom eventually could prove the best hire of the 2024-25 offseason cycle. He clearly learned from the mistakes at Missouri in the 2010s, did a masterful job at UNLV for two years and will rapidly upgrade Purdue’s personnel. But the hill in West Lafayette is steep. The Boilermakers were 0-9 in Big Ten play last year under former coach Ryan Walters. If Odom gets them to 3-6, he will have done stellar work.

18. Maryland

The Terrapins regressed in 2024 and registered a single Big Ten victory— that’s right, the fourth-quarter comeback against USC was their only conference win (which says more about the Trojans than the Terps, by the way.) Coach Mike Locksley needs to change his team’s trajectory next fall or the seat in College Park could get warm quite quickly. The departure of quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (to Wisconsin) makes the challenge more difficult.

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