Contention windows closed? How the 49ers, Warriors, Stanford women and SF Giants have fallen and could climb back
A sports dynasty is in the eye of the beholder.
It demands championships and a sustained period of excellence, although it’s up for debate as to how many years a dynasty requires or how many victories it takes to qualify.
Whether they’re dynasties or not, four Bay Area sports programs with a recent history of success have fallen on hard times. Here’s a look at the 49ers, the Warriors, the Giants and the Stanford women’s basketball program:
49ERS
Pedigree: Super Bowl championships following the 1981, 1984, 1988, 1989 and 1994 seasons. Super Bowl runner-up following 2012, 2019 and 2023 seasons. Entering 2024, had played in four NFC Championship Games in five years, winning twice.
Coach: Kyle Shanahan (9th season; 70-62 record; 82-70 including the playoffs)
The last hurrah: They lost 25-22 in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. The 49ers took a 22-19 lead on a 27-yard field goal by Jake Moody to open overtime but lost when Patrick Mahomes drove the Chiefs 75 yards in 13 plays for a game-ending touchdown. Their last championship was after the 1994 season, 49-26 over the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX in Miami.
What went wrong: The 49ers are coming off a 6-11 season that saw several key players injured including running back Christian McCaffrey, left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Williams and Aiyuk were injured following contract holdouts. The 49ers played poorly in a 2-7 second half of the season on defense, particularly against the run. They were poor on special teams all season even by their own meager standard in that area. They lost NFC West games against Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals in Weeks 3 and 5, blowing substantial fourth-quarter leads in both games and were crushed by a combined score of 73-20 in Weeks 11 and 12 on the road against playoff-worthy opponents in Green Bay and Buffalo.
The way back: A return to health for both McCaffrey and Williams. A second consecutive strong draft in 2025 after one of their best classes in the Shanahan/Lynch regime in 2024. A more favorable schedule as a fourth-place finisher in the division, facing fourth-place finishers from other divisions. Signing Brock Purdy to a multi-year extension without a holdout, and then putting a faster, more healthy team around him. Defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen and special teams coordinator Brian Schneider have been replaced by Robert Saleh and Brant Boyer.
Quotable: “We’re going to do everything we can to never lose really good players who are good people. But that’s also a very hard challenge, very hard. And that’s something that you don’t just talk about in one meeting. There’s too many things that connect to that. Draft, free agency, roster, years, all that stuff. And that takes weeks, months to decide.” — Shanahan
Coach Steve Kerr (left) and Stephen Curry have been constants for a Warriors team that won four NBA championships between 2015 and 2022. Getty Images
WARRIORS
Pedigree: Won NBA titles in 1975, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022 against Washington (4-0), Cleveland three times (4-2, 4-0 and 4-1) and Boston (4-2). Eliminated in NBA Finals in 2016 by Cleveland (4-3) and 2019 against Toronto (4-2).
Coach: Steve Kerr (11th season; 542-297 record; 682-396 including playoffs)
The last hurrah: Everything broke right in winning their last championship, including career years for Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins as well as a favorable path to the NBA Finals. Considering the stakes, Stephen Curry has never been better than he was in the Finals against Boston. Trailing 2-1 in the series against a younger team, Curry had 24 second-half points and finished with 43 points. He added 10 rebounds. It swung the series permanently in the Warriors’ favor. Curry averaged 31.2 points in the finals in a 16-6 postseason.
What went wrong: There was an organizational hubris in attempting a “two-timeline” build for the future while contending in the present. It failed, in part because the Warriors drafted 7-footer James Wiseman with the No. 2 overall pick in 2020 and focused on staying competitive rather than allowing him to develop. On Oct. 5, 2022, forward Draymond Green punched Poole during practice in a video that went viral. Viewed as a young cornerstone player, the trajectory of Poole’s career with the Warriors was altered and he was traded to Washington with the Warriors getting 38-year-old Chris Paul in return. Paul averaged 9.2 points per game and 6.8 assists, missing 23 games due to injury. General manager Bob Myers, an architect of the championship years, resigned in May of 2023 and was replaced by Mike Dunleavy.
The way back: Before the 2016-17 season, Kevin Durant agreed to join the Warriors to team with Curry, Green and Klay Thompson, a signing that was financially feasible because of a once-in-a-generation cap spike. Short of a similar circumstance involving a superstar acquisition who can mesh with Curry as he finishes his career, it’s tough to imagine the Warriors competing for another championship in the near future when simply making the playoffs is a toss-up.
Quotable: “We know we have to be a 3-point shooting team to win. We don’t really get to the line a whole lot or get a lot of easy buckets.” – Kerr on the current Warriors
New director of baseball operations Buster Posey is responsible for getting the Giants back on top after winning three World Series titles in five years between 2010 and 2014. Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group
GIANTS
Pedigree: Won the World Series following the 2010, 2012 and 2014 seasons against Texas (4-1), Detroit (4-0) and Kansas City (4-3). Eliminated in National League Division Series in 2016 by Chicago (3-1). Eliminated in National League Division Series against Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021 (3-2).
Manager: Bob Melvin (2nd season; 80-82 record; 1,597-1,507 career; 1,610-1,526 including playoffs entering 22nd year between Mariners, Diamondbacks and Padres)
The last hurrah: The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games and the National League West under manager Gabe Kapler and director of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in 2021, then lost to the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. Now they are more than a decade removed from their last championship, courtesy of World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner with two wins and a five-inning save in Game 7.
What went wrong: After three championships and an NLDS appearance under manager Bruce Bochy and executive vice president Brian Sabean, the Giants had losing seasons from 2017 through 2019, which prompted the hirings of Zaidi and Kapler. An analytics-forward approach ensued. The Giants whiffed on big-name free agents such as Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who went to the Phillies, Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. After a 107-55 season in 2021, the Giants were 81-81 in 2022 and never gained traction in 2023. Kapler was fired with three games remaining and a 78-81 record. Zaidi hired Melvin, and it was more of the same with an 80-82 record in 2024.
The way back: Three-time world champion, seven-time All-Star and Hall of Fame candidate Buster Posey was hired to lead baseball operations in place of Zaidi on Sept. 30. Posey retained Melvin, and espouses a system which blends old-school baseball thought with analytics. Shortstop Willy Adames was signed to the largest contract in franchise history and will play alongside third baseman Matt Chapman, who had a solid 2024 season and re-upped as a free agent. Outfielder Heliot Ramos broke out with a .269 average, 22 homers and 72 RBIs and made the All-Star team at age 24. Center fielder Jung Hoo Lee returns from shoulder surgery. The Giants also signed 42-year-old veteran Justin Verlander, a three-time Cy Young Award winner and Most Valuable Player. He’ll join a rotation that includes staff ace Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn in addition to closer Ryan Walker.
Quotable: “How much information can you give a player before it’s too much — before it’s diminishing returns?” — Posey on the use of analytics
Stanford coach Kate Paye (center) took over for legendary head coach Tara VanDerveer after 17 years as an assistant coach. Shae Hammond/Bay Area News Group
Stanford women’s basketball
Pedigree: NCAA championships in 1990, 1992 and 2021. Fourteen Final Four appearances, twenty-one appearances in Elite Eight and 28 in Sweet 16. Pac-10/12 champions 26 times. Pac-10/12 Tournament champions 15 times.
Coach: Kate Paye (1st year, 10-9, 2-6 in Atlantic Coast Conference)
The last hurrah: The Cardinal beat conference rival Arizona 54-53 at the Alamo Dome in San Antonio for their last NCAA title in 2021. Haley Jones led Stanford with 17 points. The 29-year gap between championships under coach Tara VanDerveer was the longest for a coach in any Division I college sport. The Cardinal finished 31-2 and Jones was named the outstanding player of the Final Four. Stanford was the Pac-12 regular season and tournament champion and beat Utah Valley State, Oklahoma State, Missouri State, Louisville and South Carolina before defeating Arizona in the title game. The Cardinal’s last NCAA Tournament victory was 87-81 over Iowa State in overtime last March 24 at Maples Pavilion to reach the Sweet 16.
What went wrong: With football being the tail that wags the dog of collegiate sports, 10 of the remaining Pac-12 schools (USC and UCLA had already announced their departure) pulled out of the conference a year and a half ago. Stanford relocated to the ACC for the 2024-25 season. VanDerveer, who had a 1,216-271 record in 38 seasons, announced her retirement last April 9. Key players who elected to enter the transfer portal in recent years were post Lauren Betts (UCLA) and power forward Kiki Iriafen (USC). Stanford was upset by No. 11 North Carolina State 77-67 in VanDerveer’s final game in the Sweet 16. After losing Iriafen as well as post Cameron Brink to graduation, it’s been a difficult transition to the ACC. Cal, which joined Stanford in the ACC, swept the Cardinal this year for the first time in 39 years. The Bears are coached by former Stanford star and assistant coach Charmin Smith.
Related Articles
Appellate court signals support for former 49er Dana Stubblefield bail hearing
10 Bay Area-laced facts sizzle up Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl
Kurtenbach: The Chiefs and Eagles have the recipe for success. Can the 49ers copy it?
49ers hire special teams coordinator who worked under Saleh with Jets
The 49ers helped coin the phrase “three-peat” but the Chiefs may actually accomplish it
The way back: Paye, who was a point guard on the 1992 championship team and was an assistant for 17 years under VanDerveer, has commitments from a star-studded recruiting class for the 2025-26 season. It includes five-star recruits in point guard Hailee Swain and forwards Lara Somfai and Amanda Eschmeyer as well as four-star recruits in forward Nora Ezike and wing Carly Sanborn. Leading scorer Nunu Agara is scheduled to return, as is Australian guard Tess Heal, who transferred from Santa Clara.
Quotable: “We have smart women on our team, and they come to Stanford to get a world-class education and to compete for a national championship. They’re smart enough to know that we have to be in one of the power conferences to do that.” — Kate Paye
Staff writer Danny Emerman contributed to this story.